- Media
Gambling.com Q3 signals caution on outlook
The company posted revenue of US $38.98 million for the period, an increase of roughly 21 to 22 per cent compared with the same quarter a year earlier and a quarterly record. Adjusted EBITDA rose modestly to US $13 million, representing year on year growth of 3 per cent and a margin of approximately 33 per cent.
Gross profit increased to US $35.6 million, up 17 per cent, although margins slipped to about 91.2 per cent from 94.7 per cent in the prior year. On a GAAP basis, the company recorded a net loss of US $3.9 million, compared with net income of US $8.5 million in 2024. Management attributed this shift largely to non cash items including contingent consideration expenses. Adjusted net income stood at US $9.3 million, equivalent to adjusted earnings per share of US $0.26, a significant outperformance relative to market expectations.
Data surge offsets stagnation in core business
The company’s rapidly scaling sports data division remained the primary source of momentum. Revenues tied to data services, which include the OpticOdds and OddsJam brands, climbed to US $9.2 million, representing growth of roughly 304 per cent year on year. Sports data products now contribute approximately one quarter of group revenue and are increasingly positioned as a strategic pillar of the business.
By contrast, the group’s traditional marketing operations continued to show signs of strain. Marketing revenue, at about US $29.8 million, was essentially flat compared with last year. New depositing customers fell to slightly more than 101,000, down from 116,000 in the comparable period. The company pointed to a deterioration in organic search visibility in several non US markets.
Executives blamed a broad rise in low quality competitor sites and the volatility associated with search engine algorithms. In response, the group is accelerating plans to reduce reliance on organic search and expand alternative traffic sources including paid acquisition channels and enterprise data offerings.
Cash flow remains resilient
Operating cash flow reached US $10.9 million in the quarter, with adjusted free cash flow at US $9.6 million, a conversion rate of roughly 74 per cent relative to adjusted EBITDA. As of 30 September 2025, the company reported US $7.4 million in cash alongside US $70.5 million of undrawn credit capacity.
Gambling.com continued its capital return initiatives. The group repurchased 562,222 shares during the quarter for US $4.7 million, bringing year to date buybacks to approximately 672,000 shares. The company also completed the acquisition of Spotlight Vegas and repaid US$5.6 million on its term loan.
Guidance trimmed amid persistent uncertainty
Management revised its full year 2025 outlook in light of continued pressure on the marketing division and the costs associated with diversifying traffic sources. The company now expects revenue of approximately US $165 million and adjusted EBITDA of about US $58 million. If achieved, these figures would represent roughly 30 per cent revenue growth and approximately 19 per cent adjusted EBITDA growth compared with 2024.
Executives cautioned that the challenges in organic search traffic are expected to remain for the near term, although they described them as temporary in nature. The company reiterated its intention to expand the higher margin and more predictable revenue generated through subscription based sports data services.
Market response reflects concerns about structural risks
Despite the strength of the earnings figures, investor reaction was notably negative. Shares in Gambling.com Group fell more than 20 per cent in early trading following the results. Market participants appeared to focus on the revenue shortfall relative to analysts expectations and on the uncertainty surrounding the performance of the marketing division. The shares now trade significantly below their 52 week high of US $17.14 and closer to their lower range.
Analysts have noted that the sharp movement in the share price reflects broader concerns regarding the stability of SEO dependent affiliate models in an increasingly competitive environment. Although some continue to highlight the long term potential of the sports data segment, investors are likely to remain cautious until the company can demonstrate a sustained stabilisation in traffic trends and improved visibility into margin development.
Strategic implications
The results suggest that Gambling.com is undergoing a gradual shift from a historically SEO driven affiliate model toward a more balanced structure that blends marketing revenue with recurring subscription and enterprise data income. The rapid rise of the sports data division offers the prospect of a more resilient long term revenue base. However, the transition carries immediate execution risks and has introduced margin pressure as the company increases investment in alternative traffic channels.
The coming quarters will be critical in assessing whether the diversification strategy can offset the volatility in the marketing business. Stabilisation in new depositing customer volumes, continued data services expansion and sustained cash generation will be central to restoring investor confidence.
