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Bets on US invasion of Venezuela not settled by Polymarket

Bettors on Polymarket have been left angered following the platform's decision not to settle millions of dollars' worth of bets relating to whether the United States would invade Venezuela.

Wagers placed on the platform Polymarket by users who placed bets on whether the United States of America would carry out an invasion on the South American country of Venezuela are not being settled, with Polymarket arguing that the capture of the now ousted President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, does not qualify as an invasion of the country.

As reported by The Guardian, some traders appeared to have anticipated the sudden move by the Trump administration to have Maduro seized, with bets having been placed on “prediction markets”, which are gambling platforms that allow individuals to wager on a range of markets created by the host website, in this case Polymarket. These markets are typically binary bets, with the options presented to the user being that of a yes or no decision, or choosing between higher or lower outcomes.

Tens of millions in bets placed on the ongoing situation in Venezuela

A large volume of bets have been placed over the past few months with regard to predictions pertaining to whether there would be US military action in Venezuela, with wagers on a potential military engagement between the two countries having exceeded US$87.4 million in trading volume on Polymarket.

An anonymous trader on Polymarket reportedly appeared to invest US$30,000 on the market ‘Maduro out by 31 January 2026’ on Friday, a day prior to Maduro’s capture. Following Maduro’s capture, which was announced on Saturday morning, the trader seemed to have made profits upwards of US$436,000.00. Total wagers on this particular scenario of Maduro being ousted by the end of January amounted up to US$10.9 million.

Following this, after Polymarket clarified that Maduro’s capture did not qualify for a winning bet with regard to the market concerning the US invading Venezuela, the odds of an invasion before the end of January plummeted to less than 5%. Traders have placed more than US$10.5 million on bets of an invasion this year, with the majority revolving around a 31 January deadline, and the remainder having put money on contracts for the end of March and December. Some individual traders have reportedly bet tens of thousands of dollars on this market.

The Guardian stated that Polymarket had been approached for comment, and Polymarket’s website states that the bet refers to “US military operations intended to establish control”. Furthermore, it added that US President Donald Trump’s statement that the US will “run” Venezuela while speaking in reference to ongoing talks with the government of Venezuela “does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion”.

Users upset by Polymarket’s decision

With all this in mind, traders on Polymarket have expressed their anger at the platform’s position. One user wrote that “Polymarket has descended into sheer arbitrariness,” as he remarked that “words are redefined at will, detached from any recognised meaning, and facts are simply being ignored”. He commented that for a military incursion which resulted in “the kidnapping of a head of state” and the “takeover of a country” not to be classified as an invasion is “plainly absurd”.

“Pretty sure this should be yes after Trump said approximately 20 times in his press conference that the US now controls Venezuela,” another Polymarket user commented, expressing similar sentiments.

Polymarket only gained regulatory approval to operate in the United States in 2025, and currently does not have a license to operate in Great Britain. The Guardian has also reported that Donald Trump Jr, the eldest son of President Trump, has taken advisory roles at Polymarket, as well as Kalshi, another similar platform.

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